Financial Stress Bulletin
Financial Stress Bulletin — 2026-10-05
Data as of 2026-10
Vietnam stress is normal (7/100, -10 points over 3 months).
global stress is normal (35/100, +20 points over 3 months).
global early warning: above sensitive threshold, driven by Brent oil change, 12 months, Global policy uncertainty (EPU).
Current stress
0–100 scale = where today's stress sits within its full history (100 = highest on record)
Early warning, 6–24 months
Stress index (0–100) and severe stress episodes
Show data table (24 months)
| Month | Vietnam | Global |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10 | 7 | 35 |
| 2026-09 | 9 | 30 |
| 2026-08 | 4 | 16 |
| 2026-07 | 16 | 15 |
| 2026-06 | 22 | 16 |
| 2026-05 | 14 | 41 |
| 2026-04 | 55 | 51 |
| 2026-03 | 82 | 56 |
| 2026-02 | 35 | 38 |
| 2026-01 | 46 | 41 |
| 2025-12 | 31 | 21 |
| 2025-11 | 53 | 33 |
| 2025-10 | 83 | 38 |
| 2025-09 | 60 | 50 |
| 2025-08 | 47 | 43 |
| 2025-07 | 50 | 43 |
| 2025-06 | 50 | 54 |
| 2025-05 | 73 | 65 |
| 2025-04 | 89 | 72 |
| 2025-03 | 70 | 69 |
| 2025-02 | 28 | 43 |
| 2025-01 | 10 | 16 |
| 2024-12 | 20 | 14 |
| 2024-11 | 28 | 20 |
By transmission channel
| Region | Channel | 0–100 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global | Monetary & global financial cycle | 24 | |
| Global | Market stress | 39 | |
| Global | Commodities & hoarding | 67 | |
| Global | Uncertainty & geopolitics | 88 | |
| Vietnam | FX & balance of payments | 45 | |
| Vietnam | Market stress | 43 | |
| Vietnam | Commodities & hoarding | 35 | |
| Vietnam | Uncertainty & geopolitics | 79 |
Indicators to watch
Risk level = historical percentile (higher = riskier); ranked by one-month increase
| Indicator | Risk level | Δ 1M |
|---|---|---|
| Fed funds change, 12 months | 59 | +20 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 89 | +9 |
| FAO food prices change, 12 months | 64 | +8 |
| Vietnam rice export price, 12 months | 68 | +6 |
| S&P 500 change, 24 months | 71 | +3 |
| Brent oil change, 12 months | 92 | +0 |
Market snapshot
| Value | Δ 1D | Δ 1M | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJC premium over world gold (%) | 9.5 | — | — | Computed by GiaTaiSan.com |
| Brent oil (USD/bbl) | 113.96 | -5.0% | +27.0% | U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED |
| VIX | 16.39 | +0.3% | +0.3% | Chicago Board Options Exchange via FRED |
| Fed funds rate (%) | 3.88 | +0.0% | +6.9% | Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED |
Only figures whose source terms permit republication are shown; other sources are used solely to compute the indices. Data sources
Which past episode does today resemble?
Closest to the run-up to 2022-01 (similarity 0.54); shared features: Brent oil change, 12 months, Google searches: "dollar price", Global policy uncertainty (EPU).
Model limitations
- The Vietnam stress index mainly reflects inflation, the exchange rate and the VN-Index; without them its historical crisis-detection AUROC is only 0.57.
- In historical testing, the early warning did not anticipate Vietnam's 2008 and 2022 episodes.
- Indices are monthly; the current month uses the latest available data and may change until month-end.
- No model can predict the exact timing of a crisis or unprecedented shocks.
Method & sources. Stress index follows the CISS method (Hollo, Kremer & Lo Duca 2012); early warning follows the signals approach (Kaminsky, Lizondo & Reinhart 1998); crisis labels follow Laeven & Valencia (2026), Reinhart & Rogoff (2011), Mishkin & White (2002). Methodology →