GiaTaiSan.com combines more than 50 economic and financial indicators for Vietnam and the world to answer two questions: how stressed is the financial system now, and how likely is a severe stress episode in the next 6–24 months. Every variable is tied to verified academic literature; all computations run as deterministic code, without AI.
1. Stress index (0–100)
Following the ECB's CISS method (Hollo, Kremer & Lo Duca, 2012): each indicator is ranked against its own history, grouped into six transmission channels (credit & asset prices; FX & balance of payments; monetary & global financial cycle; market stress; commodities & hoarding; uncertainty & geopolitics), and aggregated taking into account how far stress co-moves across channels. The 0–100 scale shows where current stress sits within its full history. Levels: below 50 normal · 50–75 watch · 75–90 high · 90+ very high.
2. Early warning, 6–24 months
Signals approach (Kaminsky, Lizondo & Reinhart, 1998): each indicator's threshold minimises the historical noise-to-signal ratio; the composite score is compared with two thresholds — a main threshold (very few false alarms but misses many episodes) and a sensitive threshold (catches more, with false alarms in about a quarter of calm months). A banking-crisis probability from a 153-country logit model is shown for reference.
3. What counts as a "severe stress episode"
Objective rules fixed before looking at the data: inflation above 20% a year and currency depreciation of 15% a year or more (Reinhart & Rogoff, 2011); exchange-market pressure above the mean plus three standard deviations (Kaminsky & Reinhart); a 20% equity decline (Mishkin & White, 2002); systemic banking crises per the IMF database (Laeven & Valencia, 2026). "Severe" means at least two rules trigger together. For Vietnam there are six severe episodes since 1996: 11/1997–3/1998, 8–10/1998, 12/2007–6/2009, 12/2009–3/2010, 6/2011–1/2012, 1/2022–4/2023.
4. Historical testing
- The global stress index separates severe episodes well (AUROC 0.92, even excluding the variables used to define the episodes).
- The Vietnam stress index mainly reflects inflation, the exchange rate and the VN-Index; without them its AUROC is only 0.57.
- Early warning (leave-one-episode-out): the sensitive threshold anticipated 4 of 6 Vietnam episodes and 4 of 4 global ones; it did not anticipate Vietnam's 2008 and 2022 episodes.
- Banking-crisis probability from 153 countries: out-of-sample AUROC 0.64 — shown only as a yearly vulnerability reference.
5. Publication process
The daily bulletin is generated automatically from data and models with fixed templated wording. The weekly report adds Vietnam macro figures and AI-proposed commentary; every figure must carry a verbatim citation from an official source or reputable outlet, is checked automatically, and is approved by a human reviewer before publication.
6. Limitations
No model can predict the exact timing of a crisis or unprecedented shocks. Information is for reference only and is not investment advice.