Crisis Early-Warning Report — Week

Crisis Early-Warning Report — Week 2026-W41

2026-10-05 · Data as of 2026-10 · Web figures and commentary were approved by a reviewer on 2026-10-05.

Q3/2026 GDP is estimated up 9.95% y/y, September CPI rose 5.08% y/y, and credit is up 10.89% YTD (as of 28 Sep). PMI eased to 51.9 and trade returned to a USD 1.27bn surplus. Globally, pressure on the Fed to hike has eased and gold fell. Vietnam's stress index is normal; the global early warning sits at the sensitive threshold.

Current stress — Vietnam

7 /100

●Normal

Current stress — Global

35 /100

●Normal

Early warning, 6–24 months — Vietnam

●No alert

0.02 · sensitive 0.14 · main 0.66

Early warning, 6–24 months — Global

▲Above sensitive threshold

0.25 · sensitive 0.18 · main 0.42

Stress index (0–100) and severe stress episodes

Vietnam Global

Stress by channel — last 12 months (0–100)

Channel	25-11	25-12	26-01	26-02	26-03	26-04	26-05	26-06	26-07	26-08	26-09	26-10
Global · Monetary & global financial cycle	35	37	17	29	43	24	21	34	39	33	23	24
Global · Market stress	32	27	26	36	67	22	19	34	44	32	43	39
Global · Commodities & hoarding	56	49	57	60	68	57	45	36	42	50	68	67
Global · Uncertainty & geopolitics	94	82	91	96	89	98	98	96	95	92	83	88
Vietnam · FX & balance of payments	57	42	58	58	63	43	28	47	37	35	44	45
Vietnam · Market stress	47	39	43	38	75	46	27	37	62	43	45	43
Vietnam · Commodities & hoarding	43	41	52	56	46	35	37	53	39	34	34	35
Vietnam · Uncertainty & geopolitics	75	81	63	49	85	100	99	98	93	90	97	79

Vietnam macro figures (web research, cited)

These figures are not yet model inputs (insufficient history); shown for context.

Indicator	Value	Period	Source
SBV central USD/VND rate	25,643 VND/USD	2026-10-05	Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam · 2026-10-05
Credit growth, year-to-date	10.89 %	2026-09	Vietstock (theo Cục Thống kê) · 2026-10-03
CPI, year-on-year	5.08 %	2026-09	Cục Thống kê · 2026-10-03
Core inflation, year-on-year	4.45 %	2026-09	Cục Thống kê · 2026-10-03
Quarterly GDP growth, year-on-year	9.95 %	2026-Q3	Cục Thống kê · 2026-10-03
Vietnam manufacturing PMI (S&P Global)	51.90 điểm	2026-09	Vietstock (theo S&P Global) · 2026-10-01
Merchandise trade balance	1.27 tỷ USD	2026-09	Cục Thống kê · 2026-10-03
10-year government bond yield	4.43 %	2026-10-05	VnExpress · 2026-10-05
Foreign exchange reserves	87.60 tỷ USD	2026-Q2	CafeF · 2026-06-24

Key developments this week

Q3/2026 GDP is estimated to have grown 9.95% year on year. [1]
September 2026 CPI rose 5.08% and core inflation 4.45% year on year. [1]
The September trade balance showed a USD 1.27bn surplus after nine consecutive months of deficit. [1]
Economy-wide credit grew 10.89% versus end-2025 as of 28 Sep 2026. [1]

News & emerging-risk radar

2026-10-03	A	Q3/2026 GDP estimated up 9.95% — Cục Thống kê High growth alongside CPI above 5% warrants watching inflation and credit pressure.
2026-10-01	A	September 2026 PMI eased to 51.9 — Vietstock Export orders fell for a second month on weak external demand.
2026-10-05	C	10-year government bond auction rate at 4.43% — VnExpress Highest since 2023, signalling firmer long-term rates.
2026-10-05	C	Fed and ECB face less pressure to hike in October — Vietstock Weaker-than-expected US jobs data lowers the odds of further tightening.
2026-10-03	E	Spot gold fell 0.8% to USD 4,145.68/oz — Vietstock Gold fell about 3.3% on the week; safe-haven moves feed risk sentiment.

A = Credit & asset prices · B = FX & balance of payments · C = Monetary & global financial cycle · D = Market stress · E = Commodities & hoarding · F = Uncertainty & geopolitics

Implications (general reference)

Not investment advice; highlights risks worth reviewing based on the model and history.

Vietnam's composite stress index stands at 6.7/100 (normal); the Vietnam early warning is not triggered.
The global early warning is at the sensitive level (score 0.2513 vs 0.18 threshold); the standalone VN model has limited reliability, so this is general reference only.

Watch next week

Fed meeting, 27–28 Oct 2026
Overnight interbank rate after the late-September swing
10-year government bond auction rates
Brent oil and policy uncertainty (active signals)

Which past episode does today resemble?

Closest to the run-up to 2022-01 (similarity 0.54); shared features: Brent oil change, 12 months, Google searches: "dollar price", Global policy uncertainty (EPU).

Model limitations

The Vietnam stress index mainly reflects inflation, the exchange rate and the VN-Index; without them its historical crisis-detection AUROC is only 0.57.
In historical testing, the early warning did not anticipate Vietnam's 2008 and 2022 episodes.
Indices are monthly; the current month uses the latest available data and may change until month-end.
No model can predict the exact timing of a crisis or unprecedented shocks.

References & sources this week

Holl\'o (2012). CISS -- A Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress in the Financial System. European Central Bank. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2018792
Kaminsky et al. (1998). Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund. doi:10.2307/3867328
Laeven & Valencia (2026). Systemic Banking Crises Database: 1970-2025. IMF Working Papers. doi:10.5089/9798229045971.001
Reinhart & Rogoff (2011). From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis. American Economic Review. doi:10.1257/aer.101.5.1676
Mishkin & White (2002). U.S. Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy. National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w8992
Drehmann & Juselius (2014). Evaluating early warning indicators of banking crises: Satisfying policy requirements. International Journal of Forecasting. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.10.002
Sarlin (2013). On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems. Economics Letters. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2012.12.030
Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam (2026-10-05) — vn_central_rate link
Vietstock (theo Cục Thống kê) (2026-10-03) — vn_credit_growth_ytd link
Cục Thống kê (2026-10-03) — vn_cpi_yoy link
Cục Thống kê (2026-10-03) — vn_core_cpi_yoy link
Cục Thống kê (2026-10-03) — vn_gdp_growth_q link
Vietstock (theo S&P Global) (2026-10-01) — vn_pmi link
Cục Thống kê (2026-10-03) — vn_trade_balance link
VnExpress (2026-10-05) — vn_gov_bond_10y link
CafeF (2026-06-24) — vn_fx_reserves link
Cục Thống kê (2026-10-03) — GDP quý III/2026 ước tăng 9,95% link
Vietstock (2026-10-01) — PMI tháng 9/2026 giảm còn 51,9 điểm link
VnExpress (2026-10-05) — Lãi suất trúng thầu trái phiếu chính phủ 10 năm 4,43% link
Vietstock (2026-10-05) — Fed và ECB bớt áp lực tăng lãi suất tháng 10 link
Vietstock (2026-10-03) — Vàng giao ngay giảm 0,8% xuống 4.145,68 USD/ounce link